Assessing what appears to be the use of LAMP in Eduardo Gamarra’s CVA

In January 2003, Eduardo Gamarra and his research team exercise out to lend their pro and academic expertise in mitigating the prob sufficient causes of Bolivian competitivenesss through the Conflict Vulnerability Assessment or throw of Bolivia (Gamarra, 2003, p. 1). Assessing the possible causes of battles in Bolivia will stop the ongoing threats to countrywide instability.The Bolivian instability whitethorn affirm started and peeked during the 2002 elections where parties started to clamor for position by entering into party coalitions due to this, the majority vote that should possess been echoed as the Bolivian democracy has been counterproductive to insure the satisfaction of party coalition based interests (Gamarra, 2003, p. 4). done the slash, Gamarra deems that it is possible to predict possible events that could turn into violent confrontations by taking into account the premises set by the baffle Bolivian political landscape.In relation to the primary(prenominal) objectives of this research paper, Eduardo Gamarras preemptive and prognostic research to address future Bolivian encounters will be assessed through the methodological analysis that Gamarra employed in his research. As of this point, Gamarras slash appears to employ prophetical methodologies in its attempts to prevent the occurrence of violent confrontations in Bolivia. Furtherto a greater extent, throw appears to follow conventions of predictive research such as those imposed in LAMP. As the centralise of this research paper, Lockwood Analytical Method of Prediction (LAMP) is one of the widely utilize predictive research methodologies (LAMP, 2010, p.n. pag. ). This methodology offers a new methodological approach from the conventional quantity based projections in predictive researches (LAMP, 2010, p. n. pag. ). LAMP raft be assumed as the methodology used by Gamarra in CVA since CVA is besides elevatedly predictive in terms of its generalizations. This research paper wi ll assess whether Gamarras CVA as a predictive work follows the guidelines set by LAMP. By qualifying the CVA move and foci with the dozen steps prescribed in LAMP, this paper seeks to fulfill its objective and deems that a definitive conclusion is possible to arrive at. Gamarra as a follower of LAMP as seen in his CVATo conclusively qualify whether Gamarra used the LAMP method in writing the CVA would require the tedious work of identifying whether the part of the LAMP be present in the CVA. This task is impeded by the fact that the final format of the CVA does not halt the same labels as the LAMP at least not as blatant. However, the idea that Gamarra used the LAMP in his CVA give the bounce be seen through the parts that his CVA put so much attention on (which follows LAMP prescriptions). These parts appears to have been presented in the CVA these parts entails almost fifty dollar bill percent conformity to the prescribe methodology in LAMP.In the whole CVA, the issue tha t holds the most bearing is the mitigation and prevention of conflicts in Bolivia. Gamarra and his team was more than solid in reiterating that the CVA will focus on Bolivia as a conflict prone country. This is the reason why Gamarra and his team spent a lot of time in onerous to predict the possibilities of the occurrence of conflicts. Through the extensive research facts presented in the paper, it can even be express that the whole CVA seeks to answer one primary question, What atomic number 18 the probable reasons that would cause conflicts to arise in Bolivia? The CVA tried to find the answer for this question by grouping the conflicts in Bolivia in v major classifications, institutional, economic, land, coca/cocaine, and citizen and public surety (Gamarra, 2003, p. 4). In the CVA, Gamarra and his team identified two major actors that can very much affect the outcome of the conflict resolution and mitigation in Bolivia- government and opposition. The MNR or Nationalist Revo lutionary Movement represents the government while the MAS or Movimiento al Socialismo leads the opposition. CVA attri justed that these parties are the main actors in the Bolivian politics and conflicts.Misunderstandings and apathy between these two parties can easily translate the unshakable political divide to violent confrontations (Gamarra, 2003, p. 4). However, the CVA did not dismiss the possibility that the 2002 elections can also reform the conflict situation through these parties (Gamarra, 2003, p. 4). The government and the opposition perceive the issues of conflict in terms of their participations on the issues. The government side pride themselves in terms of the inter subject field economic and security support it has (Gamarra, 2003, p. 6).On the opposite hand, the opposition takes pride in the intermediation they are able to contribute to the conflict resolution transition (Gamarra, 2003, p. 6). In the CVA Gamarra and his team provided contextualizing facts that w ould put the MAS led opposition and MNR led government in their places in the conflict situation. This attempt can be seen with the graphical representation that Gamarra and his team presented to betoken the divided opinions of the national actors regarding the appropriate type of government in Bolivia (Gamarra, 2003, p. 14).Gamarra further contextualized the conflicts in terms of the partisan opinion in considering the plausibility of military uprising (coup detat) in installing new types of government that parties see as more fitting to Bolivia (Gamarra, 2003, p. 12). Even if Gamarra and his team are loyal to LAMP in these parts of CVA, there are other parts of CVA that show that the CVA was not exclusively written through LAMP. The Contradictions, Shortcomings and Disloyalties of CVA to LAMP As said earlier, the CVA appears to be written through the LAMP this can hold for the almost fifty percent of the CVA.However, in terms of the data gathering and presentation part of the CVA Gamarra and his team took a different path apart from LAMP. This claim can be supported with the different formulation of the conflict scenarios in the CVA when compared to the LAMP. In LAMP, the permutations of the alternative futures (z) follow a strict formula XY=Z that is pertinacious by the number of actors (x) and the rime of major scenarios (y) (LAMP, 2010, p. n. pag. ). The formula basis of LAMP insures uniformity in terms of the numbers of scenarios that would be required in predicting through certain national actors.In the CVA there are cardinal major scenarios provided (counter narcotics, political institutions, citizen and public security, economic theater of operations and land ownership). Raising the two identified actors by the quin major scenarios will require thirty-two scenarios. On the other hand, the CVA was only able to provide 16 scenarios under the five major scenarios. Another shortcoming of the CVA was its failure to treat proper pair wise comparison among the scenarios this resulted to different scenarios provided under the five major scenarios.The scenarios of citizen and public security have four scenarios as compared to the three scenarios of all of the remaining major scenarios (counter- narcotics, political institutions, economic arena and land ownership. Due to the absence of a pair wise comparing mechanism, the CVA also lacks the qualifications of probabilities that are determined through votes from comparing pair wise. These characteristics of the CVA deviated by twenty- five percent from the total twelve steps prescribed in LAMP.On the other hand, CVA delivered the remaining twenty-five percent of LAMP in accordance to the prescriptions of LAMP. Gamarra and his team provided the needed information to establish consequential analysis, which the step 9 of LAMP prescribed. The steps 10, 11 and 12 are also included in the CVA through the imaginative conclusion presented in the CVA. The high dependency rate of the Gamarra a nd his teams conclusion with the numbers presented by the graphical representations follow the predictive nature of LAMP. Conclusion and RecommendationsTaking into account all of the investigations presented in this research paper it can be think that the Conflict Vulnerability Assessment of Bolivia is a hybrid research in terms of the methodologies it employed. The seventy five percent of the CVA was written in accordance with LAMP, but the twenty five percent of CVA does not coincide with the duodecimal requirements of LAMP. The difference between LAMP and the methodology employed in CVA does not imply that the CVA is a failed predictive research. CVAs use of different methods only show the flexibility that Gamarra and his team sought to establish in the CVA.Given this conclusion, this paper would recommend improvements for the two major aspects of the CVA- social system and methodology. It is recommendable that the CVA would use a paper structure or format that is more accessi ble in answering specific aspects of predictive research. The current arrangement of the CVA tends to make the issue of Bolivian conflict too broad to discuss and even solve. The discussions without the recommended segmentation appear not only to be reiterating but also to be too general since the reference focal points overlap each other (as seen in the presentation of the scenarios).On the other hand, the methodology employed with the CVA appears to be improvable in terms of make the quantitative aspect of the methodology isolated and only catered as additional empirical references. A qualitative research method is probably more fitting to the undeniable culture sensitive and politics sloshed conflicts in Bolivia. Eduardo Gamarra and his team could have broken away from the conventions of quantitative predictive research by providing more vivid narrative accounts of the current and predicted conflict situations instead of standing on the methodological position of LAMP.The quant itative elaborateness in LAMP makes the quantitative shortcomings in CVA either half-truths or irrelevant both probabilities could have avoided if the CVA was treated as a qualitative research. Bibliography Gamarra, E. A. (2003). Conflict Vulnerability Assessment Bolivia. Retrieved August 5, 2010, from www. digitalcommons. flu. edu http//digitalcommons. fiu. edu/cgi/viewcontent. cgi? obligate=1002&context=laccwps LAMP. (2010). The Application of LAMP. Retrieved August 5, 2010, from www. lamp-method. org http//www. lamp-method. org/2. html